Assessment of Potential Landslide Scenarios Using Morphometry, Geomorphological Constraints, and Run-Out Analysis: A Case Study from Central Apennines (Italy)

Abstract

Landslides are among the most damaging natural hazards, posing significant threats to human lives and infrastructures, especially in mountainous regions such as the Central Apennines (Italy). This study focuses on the Mt. Marsicano catchment (2245 m a.s.l.), characterized by peculiar morphometric features and geomorphological constraints that highlight the possibility of potential landslide scenarios. The methodological approach led to the identification of potential landslide propagation patterns. The RAMMS::DEBRIS FLOW module was used to model two potential landslide scenarios: a debris flow-like movement with a volume of 2.03 × 104 m3 and a rock avalanche-like movement with a volume of 1.2 × 106 m3. Findings from the latter scenario suggested river obstruction and potential lake formation upstream. Triggering mechanisms were partially explored, linking the debris flow scenario to heavy rainfall events (>50 mm/day) and the rock avalanche scenario to earthquakes with Mw > 5.0. Despite the absence of occurred landslides for back-calculation analysis and modeling based on geomorphic evidence rather than calibrating to a specific local past event, the study provides preliminary clues about the combination between morphometric analysis and geomorphological constraints in hypothesizing potential landslide scenarios. It provides a foundation for anticipating future landslide impacts in mountainous areas with limited historical data, offering valuable geomorphological insights for preventive hazard assessment and mitigation strategies in similar environments.