Motif-based structural analysis and resilience assessment of the RCEP shipping network

Abstract

The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has further strengthened maritime trade in the Asia-Pacific region. However, with the increasing complexity of shipping networks, the risk of cascading effects in the event of emergencies has become more prominent. This study, based on motif analysis and the disaster spreading theory (DST), analyzes the node importance and network resilience of the RCEP shipping network. First, this study presents a node importance measure based on motif analysis, which addresses the limitation that traditional topology indicators ignore node structure synergies. The research results indicate that nodes identified through motif structure analysis have a stronger influence on the stability of the network. Furthermore, this paper proposes a cascading failure model based on disaster spreading theory, which integrates multiple sources of disturbances with differentiated transmission intensity, recovery rate, and time-delay effects. And the simulation analysis effectively reveals the impact of transmission intensity, recovery rate, and time-delay effects on network resilience.