Prediction of abstinence from ethanol in alcoholic recipients following liver transplantation

Abstract

The prediction of abstinence from ethanol may be crucial to the optimal selection of liver transplantation candidates with alcoholism. Of 84 consecutive end-stage alcoholic patients who underwent transplantation (1986- 1994) at our institution, we analyzed 63 long-surviving recipients for pretransplantation variables to predict posttransplantation abstinence (follow-up: 49.3 ± 21 mo). Thirty-three pretransplantation variables were reviewed from our transplantation data base and supplemented and confirmed with interviews with recipients. The psycho-social inclusion criteria included the following: patient recognition of alcoholism, a domicile, an occupation, and at least one close personal relationship. The incidence of abstinence from ethanol was (50/63) 79%. A logistic regression of the 33 variables in conjunction with our above inclusion criteria accurately predicted abstinence (90% accuracy, χ2 model, P