A bayesian approach to the analysis of time symmetry in light curves: Reconsidering scorpius x-1 occultations

Abstract

We present a new approach to the analysis of time symmetry in light curves, such as those in the X-ray at the center of the Scorpius X-1 occultation debate. Our method uses a new parameterization for such events (the bilogistic event profile) and provides a clear, physically relevant characterization of each event's key features. We also demonstrate a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out this analysis, including a novel independence chain configuration for the estimation of each event's location in the light curve. These tools are applied to the Scorpius X-1 light curves presented in Chang et al., providing additional evidence based on the time series that the events detected thus far are most likely not occultations by trans-Neptunian objects. © 2009 The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.