The Social Ecology of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in New York City: The Role of Walkability, Wealth, and Race

Abstract

The present research examined the zip code level (177 zip codes) prevalence of and deaths associated with COVID-19 in New York City as of May 22, 2020. Walkable zip codes had consistently lower prevalence of (r = −.49) and deaths (r = −.15) associated with COVID-19. The mediation analysis showed that the degree of reduction in actual geographical mobility during the lockdown (measured by smartphone GIS data) accounted for geographical variations in the number of confirmed cases and deaths. Residents in wealthy zip codes and walkable zip codes were able to limit geographical mobility, whereas residents in poor zip codes and Black and Hispanic dominant zip codes were not. Finally, the spatial lag regression analysis showed that walkability was a robust predictor of zip code–level prevalence of and deaths associated with COVID-19. Overall, walkability seems to have provided protection against the spread of COVID-19.