Rainfall forecasting using triple exponential smoothing for rice cultivation in lamongan, jawa timur

Abstract

Rice cultivation is a major agricultural activity that is heavily influenced by weather conditions. Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, can cause farmers' productivity to decline. Rainfall forecasts are important for farmers to help them make the right decisions in managing their farming businesses. This research aims to predict rainfall in Lamongan Regency, East Java province, and provide valuable information to rice farmers to plan the optimal planting season. The method used in this study is Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES), an effective forecasting technique for processing time series data with seasonal patterns. Monthly rainfall data for the last five years formed the basis of the forecast, with data sourced from NASA's Power Data Access Viewer. The analysis results include a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 97.559% for rainfall. This rainfall forecast can assist farmers in increasing rice productivity and minimizing the risk of crop failure due to unpredictable weather conditions. With the rainfall weather forecast, farmers are expected to know the suitable months for rice cultivation so that productivity increases