The heterogeneous regional effect of mobility on Coronavirus spread

Abstract

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic struck global society in 2020. The pandemic required the adoption of public policies to control spread of the virus, underlining the mobility restrictions. Several studies show that these measures have been effective. Within the topic of Coronavirus spread, this original paper analyses the effect of mobility on Coronavirus spread in a heterogeneous regional context. A multiple dynamic regression model is used to control sub-national disparities in the effect of mobility on the spread of the Coronavirus, as well as to measure it at the context of Spanish regions. The model includes other relevant explanatory factors, such as wind speed, sunshine hours, vaccinated population and social awareness. It also develops a new methodology to optimise the use of Google trends data. The results reveal heterogeneity among regions, which has important implications for current and future pandemic containment strategies.