Global spatial-temporal graph convolutional network for urban traffic speed prediction

Abstract

Traffic speed prediction plays a significant role in the intelligent traffic system (ITS). However, due to the complex spatial-temporal correlations of traffic data, it is very challenging to predict traffic speed timely and accurately. The traffic speed renders not only short-term neighboring and multiple long-term periodic dependencies in the temporal dimension but also local and global dependencies in the spatial dimension. To address this problem, we propose a novel deep-learning-based model, Global Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (GSTGCN), for urban traffic speed prediction. The model consists of three spatial-temporal components with the same structure and an external component. The three spatial-temporal components are used to model the recent, daily-periodic, and weekly-periodic spatial-temporal correlations of the traffic data, respectively. More specifically, each spatial-temporal component consists of a dynamic temporal module and a global correlated spatial module. The former contains multiple residual blocks which are stacked by dilated casual convolutions, while the latter contains a localized graph convolution and a global correlated mechanism. The external component is used to extract the effect of external factors, such as holidays and weather conditions, on the traffic speed. Experimental results on two real-world traffic datasets have demonstrated that the proposed GSTGCN outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.