Intelligent System for Student Performance Prediction: An Educational Data Mining Approach Using Metaheuristic-Optimized LightGBM with SHAP-Based Learning Analytics

Abstract

Educational data mining (EDM) plays a crucial role in developing intelligent early warning systems that enable timely interventions to improve student outcomes. This study presents a novel approach to student performance prediction by integrating metaheuristic hyperparameter optimization with explainable artificial intelligence for enhanced learning analytics. While Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) demonstrates efficiency in educational prediction tasks, achieving optimal performance requires sophisticated hyperparameter tuning, particularly for complex educational datasets where accuracy, interpretability, and actionable insights are paramount. This research addressed these challenges by implementing and evaluating five nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithms: Fox Algorithm (FOX), Giant Trevally Optimizer (GTO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Sand Cat Swarm Optimization (SCSO), and Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) for automated hyperparameter optimization. Using rigorous experimental methodology with 5-fold cross-validation and 20 independent runs, we assessed predictive performance through comprehensive metrics including Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Relative Absolute Error (RAE), and Mean Error (ME). Results demonstrate that metaheuristic optimization significantly enhances educational prediction accuracy, with SCSO-LightGBM achieving superior performance with R2 of 0.941. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis provides crucial interpretability, identifying Attendance, Hours Studied, Previous Scores, and Parental Involvement as dominant predictive factors, offering evidence-based insights for educational stakeholders. The proposed SCSO-LightGBM framework establishes an intelligent, interpretable system that supports data-driven decision-making in educational environments, enabling proactive interventions to enhance student success.