The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean's salinity and temperature fields

Abstract

The ocean's salinity field is driven primarily by evaporation, precipitation, and river discharge, all key elements of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Observations show the salinity field has been changing in recent decades. We perform a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis of these changes between 1955-2004, 60S and 60N, and in the top 700 m of the water column. We find that observed changes are inconsistent with the effects of natural climate variability, either internal to the climate system (such as El Nio and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) or external (solar fluctuations and volcanic eruptions). However, the observed changes are consistent with the changes expected due to human forcing of the climate system. Joint changes in salinity and temperature yield a stronger signal of human effects on climate than either salinity or temperature alone. When examining individual depth levels, observed salinity changes are unlikely (p < 0.05) to have arisen from natural causes over the top 125 m of the water column, while temperature changes (and joint salinity/temperature changes) are distinct from natural variability over the top 250 m. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.