Improving Prediction with Causal Probabilistic Variables

Abstract

The application of feature engineering in classification problems has been commonly used as a means to increase the classification algorithms performance. There are already many methods for constructing features, based on the combination of attributes but, to the best of our knowledge, none of these methods takes into account a particular characteristic found in many problems: causality. In many observational data sets, causal relationships can be found between the variables, meaning that it is possible to extract those relations from the data and use them to create new features. The main goal of this paper is to propose a framework for the creation of new supposed causal probabilistic features, that encode the inferred causal relationships between the target and the other variables. In this case, an improvement in the performance was achieved when applied to the Random Forest algorithm.