Flood Inundation Mapping along the Lower Reach of Kelani River Basin under the Impact of Climatic Change

Abstract

The downstream low lying region of the Kelani River including the Colombo suburbs, experience severe inundation due to heavy rainfalls in the upper basin of the Kelani River. Occurrence of heavy rainfalls is expected to be more frequent in the tropics with the impact of climatic change (IPCC, 2007). Therefore, understanding future rainfall intensity in the river basin and inundation in the low lying region along the lower reach of the Kelani River is extremely important as this is a region with a high population density and economic activities in the suburbs of the capital. The present study analyses the potential extreme rainfalls and resulting flood inundation along the lower Kelani River. Coarse grid atmospheric parameters provided by Global Climate Model (GCM) models for A2 (high emission scenario) and B2 (low emission scenario) scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were downscaled to local scale by applying Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Flood discharge and inundation along the Kelani River reach below Hanwella were analyzed by applying two-dimensional flood simulation model (FLO-2D). Inflow to the model at Hanwella, is estimated by the Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model under future extreme rainfall events. Areas vulnerable to inundation under the above climatic change scenarios are presented.