Emerging technology and intra-war escalation risks: Evidence from the Cold War, implications for today

Abstract

Will emerging technologies increase the risk of conflict escalation? This paper develops a framework for evaluating the role of technology in different types of intra-war escalation. It then uses the framework to probe empirically the possible role of technology in escalation through three carefully chosen cases from Cold War. The findings largely cast doubt on the idea of emerging technologies as an independent, primary driver of otherwise avoidable escalation, suggesting instead that technology more likely functions as an intervening variable–a sometimes necessary, but rarely sufficient, condition for escalation. The conclusion explores the implications of this analysis for the future.