Exploring the Effects of Transportation Supply on Mixed Land-Use at the Parcel Level

Abstract

The interactive relationship between transportation and land use has become more difficult to understand and predict, due to the economic boom and corresponding fast-paced proliferation of private transportation and land-development activities. A lack of coordination between transportation and land-use planning has created an imbalanced provision of transportation infrastructure and land-use patterns; this is indicated by places where a high-density land-development pattern is supported by a low-capacity transport system or vice versa. With this, literature suggests that Mixed Land-Use (MLU) developments have the potential to provide relevant solutions for urban sustainability, smart growth, inclusive public transit use, and efficient land-use. Therefore, this study employed deep neural network models—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—for forecasting the effect of transportation supply on the MLU pattern at the parcel level in the Jiang’an District, Wuhan, China. The findings revealed a strong relationship between the supply of public transportation and MLU. Moreover, the study results indicated that MLU is widely available in areas with high accessibility, high density, and proximity to the city center. The forecasting results from the MLP and LSTM models showed an average error of 5.55– 7.36% and 3.62–4.28% for mixed use, respectively, while most of their 90th percentile errors were less than 13.73% and 10.46% for mixed use, respectively. The proposed models and the findings from this study should be useful for stakeholders and policy makers for more precise forecasting of MLU at the urban level.