Proxy models for election forecasting: The 2012 French test

Abstract

The several models of French presidential election forecasting that have been proposed focus virtually exclusively on substantive explanation of the vote, embedded within a single-equation macro-model. We offer something different - a powerful Proxy Model based on prediction alone. However, that model itself forms part of a larger two-equation system, which includes both explanation as well as prediction of the presidential vote. Our Proxy Model is estimated on the eight popular presidential elections of the Fifth Republic, and tested on the upcoming 2012 contest. The Proxy Model, 6 months in advance of that race, forecasts a Left victory and a Sarkozy defeat. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.