Tracking the characteristics of economic growth vulnerability to covid-19: A preliminary analysis

Abstract

In response to the global expansion of COVID-19, governments around the world have implemented social distancing measures resulting in an unprecedented fall in economic activity. Consequently, the economic growth forecasts for 2020 have been adjusted downward in most countries, yet the magnitude of the decline has been different. In this article, we examine the economic vulnerability to COVID-19-measured as the change in GDP growth forecasts for 2020-and its determinants for a sample of 194 countries. We identify the characteristics of the external sector and macroeconomic policy stance that are associated with an increase in economic vulnerability during the pandemic.