A stochastic optimization model for carbon mitigation path under demand uncertainty of the power sector in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

In order to solve problems caused by climate change, countries around the world should work together to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, especially CO2 emissions. Power demand takes up the largest proportion of final energy demand in China, so the key to achieve its goal of energy-saving and emission reduction is to reduce the carbon emissions in the power sector. Taking Shenzhen as an example, this paper proposed a stochastic optimization model incorporating power demand uncertainty to plan the carbon mitigation path of power sector between 2015 and 2030. The results show that, in order to achieve the optimal path in Shenzhen's power sector, the carbon mitigation technologies of existing coal and gas-fired power plants will be 100% implemented. Two-thirds and remaining one-third of coal-fired power plant capacities are going to be decommissioned in 2023 and 2028, respectively. Gas-fired power, distributed photovoltaic power, waste-to-energy power and CCHP (Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power) are going to expand their capacities gradually.