A Novel Method for Risk Assessment of Cable Fires in Utility Tunnel

Abstract

Given the flammability of power cables and the high cost of utility tunnel construction, power cable fires cause serious economic losses and are associated with a negative social impact. In the study, a weighted fuzzy Petri net and an event tree are combined to propose a quantitative evaluation method to mitigate cable fire risks in a utility tunnel. First, cable fire risk factors are analyzed. Given the lack of utility tunnel cable fire historical data, fuzzy theory is used to calculate the failure probability of the primary event. Second, a weighted fuzzy Petri net is used for fuzzy reasoning, and an event tree is used to analyze all possible consequences. Subsequently, the numerical simulation method is used to quantify the loss from the cable fire and thereby quantify the risk of cable fire. Finally, the effect of different risk factors on a cable fire is analyzed to determine the main factors that affect cable fires. Simultaneously, the control ability of different control measures with respect to the fire is analyzed to determine key control measures. A case study of a utility tunnel cable cabin in Liupanshui in Guizhou is employed to validate the utility of the proposed method.