Evaluating Recent Updated Black Carbon Emissions and Revisiting the Direct Radiative Forcing in Arctic

Abstract

There is significant uncertainty in the global inventory of black carbon (BC). Several recent studies have reported BC emission updates, including the Fire Emission Inventory-northern Eurasia, anthropogenic emission in Russia, and global natural gas flaring. Compared with the inventory used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these updates are only 10% higher on a global scale but are 3 times greater than previous estimations in Arctic (60–90°N). We applied GEOS-Chem to examine these emission updates and evaluate their impacts on direct forcing. We found that Fire Emission Inventory-northern Eurasia may be substantially overestimated, Russia shows no prominent influence on simulation, and natural gas flaring noticeably improves simulation performance in the Arctic. Model estimated direct forcing of BC is increased by 30% on the global scale and is 2 times higher in the Arctic through application of these emission updates. This study reveals the urgent need to improve the reliability of emission inventories in the high latitudes, especially over Eurasia.