A New Index for the Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: The Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Score (PEMS)

Abstract

Our aim was to analyze possibility of combination of basic clinical and radiological signs to predict 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We included 486 patients. Age, gender, simplified pulmonary embolism index (sPESI), pH, troponin, N-terminal natriuretic peptide, minimal systolic and diastolic blood pressure, O2 saturation, syncope, need for vasopressors, thrombotic obstruction, vessel diameter, short axis ratio right ventricle/left ventricle, and contrast medium reflux into the inferior vena cava (IVC) were analyzed. A backward algorithm in a logistic regression model was used to identify relevant risk factors. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified that sPESI, pH, minimal diastolic blood pressure, IVC reflux, and need for vasopressors influenced 30-day mortality. A score for mortality prediction was constructed (the Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Score): sPESI >2 points (1 point), pH <7.35 (1 point), minimal diastolic blood pressure <45 mm Hg (1 point), IVC reflux (1 point), and need for vasopressors (2 points). Patients with >3 points showed higher 30-day mortality (sensitivity: 84.9%, specificity: 83.0%, positive predictive value: 51.8%, negative predictive value: 96.2%). The net reclassification improvement compared with the sPESI was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.73-1.15). In conclusion, a new score can predict 30-day mortality in patients with PE and is more sensitive than sPESI.