Opinion formation in an open system and the spiral of silence

Abstract

A new model is formulated of the sociological effect of the spiral of silence, introduced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in 1974. The probability that a new opinion is openly expressed decreases with the difference between this new opinion and the perceived opinion of the majority. We also assume that the system is open, i.e. some people enter and some leave during the process of the opinion formation. An influence of a leader is simulated by a comparison of two runs of the simulation, where the leader has different opinion in each run. The difference of the mean expressed opinions in these two runs persists long after the leader's leave.