低碳试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响评估及机制分析

Abstract

Low- carbon pilot project is an important policy to realize the development of low-carbon economy in China. Objectively evaluating its implementation effect is not only conducive to better promoting low- carbon work in low- carbon pilot project areas, but also of great significance for the further promotion of low-carbon pilot policy. However, there is no consistent conclusion on whether the low- carbon pilot policy can enhance the performance of carbon emissions. Taking the second batch of low-carbon pilot projects as an example and using city panel data from 2012 to 2016, this study examined the impact of low-carbon pilot policy on the reduction of local carbon emission intensity by using the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference (PSM-DID) method in order to effectively reduce the processing effect bias caused by the problem of sample selection and policy endogeneity. It was found that the low-carbon pilot policy had a significant and sustained effect on local carbon intensity reduction. Further mechanism identification results show that low-carbon pilot areas mainly achieve a decline in carbon intensity through the improvement of energy efficiency and upgrading of industrial structure, and the upgrading of industrial structure shows a trend of increase year by year. However, the goal of reducing carbon emissions by raising the level of carbon sink in urban green spaces has not yet been achieved. Based on this conclusion, we believe that China should further promote the low-carbon pilot policy and actively explore the development model of low-carbon cities, in particular by further establishing a livable and green urban environment.