Selective-LAMA: Selective Prediction for Confidence-Aware Evaluation of Language Models

Abstract

Recent studies have suggested that neural language models learn and store a large amount of facts and commonsense knowledge from training data. The ability of language models to restore such knowledge is often evaluated via zero-shot cloze-style QA tasks. However, such evaluations rely only on prediction accuracy without punishing the systems for their mistakes, e.g., simply guessing or hallucinating likely answers. Selective prediction is a more informative evaluation framework that takes the confidence of predictions into account. Under the selective prediction setting, a model is evaluated not only by the number of correct predictions, but also by the ability to filter out dubious predictions by estimating the confidence of individual predictions. Such confidence-aware evaluation is crucial for determining whether to trust zero-shot predictions of language models. In this paper, we apply the selective prediction setting to an existing benchmark, LAMA probe, and conduct extensive experiments with recent neural language models and different confidence functions. We empirically show that our Selective-LAMA evaluation is more robust to the effect of simple guesses than the conventional accuracy-based evaluation. Our evaluation reveals the importance of the choice of confidence functions by showing that simply relying on token probabilities is not always the best choice. Further analysis shows that various confidence functions exhibit different preferences over predicted tokens for a given context.