Drought: the silent evil of Central American migration in the period 1990 to 2019

Abstract

The objective is to analyze in the period 1990 to 2019 the effects of climate and the tendency of individuals to leave a territory, measuring the weight of precipitation or lack thereof in the Central American Dry Corridor. To study this process, a stochastic frontier model was developed. As a primary result, it was found that there is a greater tendency to migrate when a drought occurs, understanding it as an extreme event for the environment and society. This tendency is evaluated with a system that includes series of controls such as other extreme weather events such as El Niño (enso) and hurricanes, vio lence levels, economy and exchange rate, which leads to the conclusion that drought above any other climatic event motivates the population to migrate. These findings contribute to the formulation of prevention, mitigation and resilience policies.