A stochastic approach in determining fire size and classification in fire risk analysis and monitoring

Abstract

This paper proposes to use the stochastic approach in evaluating the risk of fire incidents. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the analysis which might produce a better overall assessment of the risk of fires. To estimate the probability of the risk of fire incidents, the following stochastic variables are used: humidity (H), lux or light (L), temperature (T), and pressure (P). These variables are then represented with probability distribution curves. In this analysis, different curves for frequency of release, different fire diameter sizes and different leak sizes are also used. To obtain the fire risk as a probability distribution, a Monte Carlo simulation using Minitab analysis was performed. Finally, in order to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion, the fire risk distribution curve obtained via the Monte Carlo simulation.