Modeling enzootic raccoon rabies from land use patterns - Georgia (USA) 2006-2010

Abstract

We analyzed how land-use patterns and changes in urbanization influence reported rabid raccoons in Georgia from 2006 - 2010. Using Geographical Information Systems and rabies surveillance data, multivariate analysis was conducted on 15 land-use variables that included natural topography, agricultural development, and urbanization to model positive raccoon rabies cases while controlling for potential raccoon submission bias associated with higher human population densities. Low intensity residential development was positively associated with reported rabid raccoons while a negative association was found with evergreen forest. Evergreen forests may offer a barrier effect where resources are low and raccoon populations are not supported. Areas with pure stands of upland evergreen forest might be utilized in baiting strategies for oral rabies vaccination programs where fewer or no baits may be needed. Their use as a barrier should be considered carefully in a cost-effective strategy for oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programs to contain the western spread of this important zoonotic disease.