Land Suitability Modelling of Agricultural Geographical Indication Products under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

As a response to the geographical environment, agricultural land suitability is one of the determining factors for the distinctive quality of agricultural geographical indication products, including coffee sector. The sustainability toward its land suitability is required, considering that the status of geographical indications on a product will remain as long as its distinctive characteristics can be maintained. However, climate change affects the land suitability of agricultural products, thus, indirectly threatens the geographical indication status of the registered products. This study aims to predict the future coffee’s land suitability as an agricultural geographical indication product in Indonesia. A baseline period (1999 to 2010) was used to identify current coffee land suitability, while future land suitability was predicted in the time horizons of the 2030s (2021 – 2040); 2050s (2041 – 2060); 2070s (2061 – 2080); and 2090s (2081 – 2100). Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and ArcMap software were used to determine the spatial distribution of land suitability. Results showed the declining trend of agricultural land suitability of registered geographical indication products in selected climate change scenarios. This study suggests that mitigating land suitability changes due to climate change is considered important to maintain the geographical indications status on agricultural products in Indonesia.