Using a support vector machine method to predict the development indices of very high water cut oilfields

Abstract

Because the oilfields in eastern China are in the very high water cut development stage, accurate forecast of oilfield development indices is important for exploiting the oilfields efficiently. Regarding the problems of the small number of samples collected for oilfield development indices, a new support vector regression prediction method for development indices is proposed in this paper. This method uses the principle of functional simulation to determine the input-output of a support vector machine prediction system based on historical oilfield development data. It chooses the kernel function of the support vector machine by analyzing time series characteristics of the development index; trains and tests the support vector machine network with historical data to construct the support vector regression prediction model of oilfield development indices; and predicts the development index. The case study shows that the proposed method is feasible, and predicted development indices agree well with the development performance of very high water cut oilfields. © 2010 China University of Petroleum (Beijing) and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.