Quantitative peritumoral magnetic resonance imaging fingerprinting improves machine learning-based prediction of overall survival in colorectal cancer

Abstract

Aim: To investigate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based peritumoral texture features as prognostic indicators of survival in patients with colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). Methods: From 2007–2015, forty-eight patients who underwent MRI within 3 months prior to initiating treatment for CRLM were identified. Clinicobiological prognostic variables were obtained from electronic medical records. Ninety-four metastatic hepatic lesions were identified on T1-weighted post-contrast images and volumetrically segmented. A total of 112 radiomic features (shape, first-order, texture) were derived from a 10 mm region surrounding each segmented tumor. A random forest model was applied, and performance was tested by receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Kaplan-Meier analysis was utilized to generate the survival curves. Results: Forty-eight patients (male:female = 23:25, age 55.3 years ± 18 years) were included in the study. The median lesion size was 25.73 mm (range 8.5–103.8 mm). Microsatellite instability was low in 40.4% (38/94) of tumors, with Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutation detected in 68 out of 94 (72%) tumors. The mean survival was 35 months ± 21 months, and local disease progression was observed in 35.5% of patients. Univariate regression analysis identified 42 texture features [8 first order, 5 gray level dependence matrix (GLDM), 5 gray level run time length matrix (GLRLM), 5 gray level size zone matrix (GLSZM), 2 neighboring gray tone difference matrix (NGTDM), and 17 gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM)] independently associated with metastatic disease progression (P < 0.03). The random forest model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88. Conclusions: MRI-based peritumoral heterogeneity features may serve as predictive biomarkers for metastatic disease progression and patient survival in CRLM.