Spatial Assessment of Mangrove Ecosystem Vulnerability on Thailand’s Andaman Coast

Abstract

Mangrove ecosystems on Thailand’s Andaman sea coast are approaching a critical threshold where accelerating sea-level rise (4.3 mm a−1) and anthropogenic intensification intersect, necessitating optimized spatial management strategies. While traditional models often isolate these stressors, effective decision-making requires a system-based approach. This study developed a multidimensional mangrove coastal vulnerability index integrating 3 key dimensions—ecological resilience, physical exposure, and anthropogenic disturbance—derived from multisource geospatial data to quantify the mangrove ecosystem’s contemporary vulnerability. The assessment reveals that 18.6% of the total mangrove area is currently in high-to-very-high-vulnerability states (mangrove coastal vulnerability index > 0.70), but spatial heterogeneity is marked. Specifically, Ranong Province exhibits acute hydrological stress and habitat fragmentation driven by the region’s highest concentration of construction land and intensive anthropogenic disturbance, whereas Satun Province, protected by the Tarutao National Park framework, maintains better relative integrity, with 17.6% of its area in high-to-very-high-vulnerability states. These divergent vulnerability profiles suggest that a monolithic conservation approach is insufficient. We propose a spatially explicit zoning framework— prioritizing strict protection in Satun and ecological restoration coupled with land-use regulation in Ranong— to operationalize the National Mangrove Management Plan (2025–2030) and promote regional sustainable development. These findings provide a spatially explicit basis for prioritizing mangrove restoration and optimizing coastal zoning policies along the Andaman coast, offering a scalable framework for vulnerability mitigation in similar tropical estuarine environments.