Effect of plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide: A modeling study

Abstract

The increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) gas concentration in the atmosphere is primarily responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest is one of the prime sinks of CO2. The reduction in the global forest cover due to human activities has contributed significantly to the increase in CO2 levels. Reforestation and afforestation are avenues to control the atmospheric CO2 level; however, several demographic, ecological, and economic constraints exist in the large-scale plantations. In this scenario, the plantation of genetically modified trees, which absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere, may aid in attaining the CO2 mitigation target. In this study, a mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of the plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of the atmospheric CO2 level. A comprehensive qualitative analysis of the model is carried out. The model is calibrated to fit the actual data of global CO2 concentration, population, and forest area. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effect of key parameters on the dynamics of forest cover and atmospheric CO2 gas. The optimal strategies for the reduction in CO2 concentration while minimizing the implementation cost of plantation programs are also investigated by proposing the optimal control problem. Recommendations for Resource Managers. The enhanced concentration of (Formula presented.) is primarily responsible for anthropogenic global warming. Declination in global forest cover is contributing to the increase in the (Formula presented.) concentration. Plantation of trees is an avenue to combat global warming by reducing the atmospheric (Formula presented.) level. However, plantation activities are constrained by land availability and other constraints. In this scenario, the use of genetically modified trees may aid in achieving (Formula presented.) mitigation targets. Forest plantation using genetically modified trees brings more reduction in (Formula presented.) concentration in comparison to when planted trees are not genetically modified. The forest management policies should focus on the development and plantation of genetically modified trees having more (Formula presented.) sequestration capacity, so that the carbon stock per unit forest area can be increased. Such policies are also found to be helpful in attaining the target reduction in (Formula presented.) concentration under economic constraints.