Research on residents' travel behavior under sudden fire disaster based on prospect theory

Abstract

The decision-making process of travel behaviors under uncertainty and risk shall be analyzed in order to solve the emergency traffic management or evacuation problem under sudden fire disaster in a high-density urban environment. Firstly, this paper attempts to acquire the travel risk attitude thought online survey questionnaires. In the questionnaire, we focused on obtaining the traveler's response thought set a scene and obtain the traveler's risk attitude. Secondly, we explore the relationship between traveler's personal attributes and risk attitudes through questionnaires. Finally, the questionnaire data were used to calibrate and adjust the parameters in the proposed prospect theory (PT) based model. Subsequently, the K-T model and Wang's model were used to compare and verify the accuracy and validity of the proposed model. The results presented that the proposed model is more accurate and the largest prediction error of travel route selection behavior is only nine percent.