Adjusting for Conditional Bias in Process Model Simulations of Hydrological Extremes: An Experiment Using the North Wyke Farm Platform

Abstract

Peak flow events can lead to flooding which can have negative impacts on human life and ecosystem services. Therefore, accurate forecasting of such peak flows is important. Physically-based process models are commonly used to simulate water flow, but they often under-predict peak events (i.e., are conditionally biased), undermining their suitability for use in flood forecasting. In this research, we explored methods to increase the accuracy of peak flow simulations from a process-based model by combining the model’s output with: a) a semi-parametric conditional extreme model and b) an extreme learning machine model. The proposed 3-model hybrid approach was evaluated using fine temporal resolution water flow data from a sub-catchment of the North Wyke Farm Platform, a grassland research station in south-west England, United Kingdom. The hybrid model was assessed objectively against its simpler constituent models using a jackknife evaluation procedure with several error and agreement indices. The proposed hybrid approach was better able to capture the dynamics of the flow process and, thereby, increase prediction accuracy of the peak flow events.