Trump Paradox: How Immigration and Trade Affected White Voting and Attitudes

Abstract

Donald Trump presented immigration and trade as the cause of the diminished prospects of white working-class voters, the core of his political base. The authors’ research—the first that examines actual immigration and trade exposure with attitudes and Trump voting—demonstrates that white voting for Trump was unrelated to immigration levels and, paradoxically, strongest in counties with low levels of trade. Anti-immigrant and antitrade attitudes more consistently and strongly explain voting for Trump and Republicans in 2016 and 2018 than actual immigration and trade. The authors also find descriptive support that over four years, Trump’s false narrative unraveled as his support declined in those counties most exposed to immigration and trade. Although Trump elaborated a white nationalist narrative on the basis of anti-immigrant and antitrade politics that was widely accepted as truth, the authors show that virtually no aspects of Trump’s simple narrative have any factual basis in actual reality.