Harnessing multi-source hydro-meteorological data for high flows modelling in a partially glacierized Himalayan basin

Abstract

The southern rim of the Indian Himalayas is highly susceptible to floods during the summer monsoon, making accurate streamflow modelling critical yet difficult due to complex terrain, climate variability, and sparse ground observations. This study uses a conceptual, semi-distributed hydrological model – enhanced with both static and dynamic glacier modules – to reproduce streamflow into the Alaknanda River at Rudraprayag gauge (∼8600 km2), a representative basin in northern India. The model was calibrated using multi-variable data, including satellite-based glacier water loss and actual evapotranspiration in addition to streamflow, also to address bias in the precipitation input. Despite inherent data uncertainties and simplified process conceptualization, the tailored hydrological modelling captured key features of observed streamflow and produced internally consistent water balance estimates. Multi-variable calibration provided a more plausible representation of hydrological processes and highlighted the value of using complementary satellite-based information in data-poor mountain regions. Parsimonious precipitation adjustment approaches are proven effective for hydrological applications. However, input data errors such as unaccounted-for heavy precipitation events limited short-term streamflow prediction accuracy. The study demonstrates that a viable, parsimonious modelling strategy can still be developed for data-scarce, monsoon-dominated Himalayan basins, offering insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of streamflow generating processes, the inter-seasonal redistribution of precipitation, the role of cryosphere contributions, and flood simulation. The approach is transferable to other monsoon-dominated, glacier-influenced, and data-limited mountain catchments facing increasing hydroclimatic risks.