Low/zero carbon technology diffusion and mapping for Nigeria’s decarbonization

Abstract

In pursuit of net-zero greenhouse gases emissions goals, Nigeria faces challenges like fossil fuel dependence, environmental degradation and energy inefficiency, necessitating a transition to decarbonization. This study employs the Bass model and TOPSIS multi-criteria analysis to investigate the diffusion and ranking of low/zero-carbon technologies for Nigeria. Findings reveal: absence of key mitigation technologies like wind, concentrating solar plant (CSP), geothermal, nuclear, hydrogen, fuel cell, carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS), direct air capture (DAC), and lime soda in Nigeria; that over a fifty-year span from year 2023, existing technologies–solar photovoltaic, bioenergy, natural gas and hydro–in Nigeria indicate slow adoption rates (3.68–106.02MW) based on Nigeria trajectory of technology use, contrasting with significantly accelerated rates (276.06–90,320MW) based on global trajectory; and multi-criteria analysis favors hydro, solar photovoltaic, natural gas, bioenergy, and wind as favorable options, while suggesting further exploration of hydrogen, fuel cell, geothermal, and nuclear technologies within Nigeria's energy landscape.