PENERAPAN MODEL ASYMMETRIC POWER AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY (APARCH) TERHADAP HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA

Abstract

Heteroscedasticity poses a challenge in ARIMA modeling by causing residual variance to be non-constant, leading to less efficient estimates. This issue often arises in time series data due to volatility, which measures data fluctuation over time. To address heteroscedasticity, models like ARCH and GARCH incorporate variance changes into forecasting. However, they lack the ability to capture asymmetry, the difference in impact between good and bad news on volatility. The APARCH model, on the other hand, addresses this by modeling volatility with asymmetry elements. Daily world crude oil prices, known for high volatility, serve as a case study for this research. By employing the APARCH model, the study aims to forecast these prices accurately. Results indicate that the APARCH(1,1) model outperforms the best GARCH model, ARCH(2), as it yields a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.033487. This highlights the superior accuracy of APARCH in forecasting data with heteroscedasticity issues, particularly in the context of daily crude oil prices.