Temporal Evolution of Bradford Curves in Academic Library Contexts

Abstract

Bradford’s law of bibliographic scattering is a fundamental principle in bibliometrics, offering valuable guidance for academic libraries in literature search and procurement. However, Bradford curves can exhibit various shapes over time, and predicting these shapes remains a challenge due to a lack of causal explanation. This paper attributes the deviations from the theoretical J-shape to integer constraints on the number of journals and articles, extending Leimkuhler’s function to encompass highly productive core journals, where the theoretical journal number falls below one. Using the Simon–Yule model, key parameters of the extended formulas are identified and analyzed. The paper explains the reasons for the Groos droop and examines the critical points for shape changes. The proposed formulas are validated with empirical data from the literature, demonstrating that this method can effectively predict the evolution of Bradford curves, providing academic libraries with a valuable tool for evaluating journal coverage, optimizing resource allocation, and refining Collection Development Policies (CDP).