Population forecasting with nonstationary multiregional growth matrices

Abstract

Though the mathematics of multiregional population projections were defined over twenty years ago, and the methodology has seen some adoption internationally, most practitioners in the United States still use rudimentary cohort component projections techniques. Both the stationarity assumption and the implicit five-year retrospective time scale imposed by the census migration data have probably contributed to the limited use of multiregional projections methods. This paper reviews previous attempts to overcome the stationarity assumption and proposes a decompositional approach using log linear models estimated via the ECM algorithm. The paper discusses the advantages of the decompositional approach and implements the model for intrastate migration in California.