Simulated changes of the Indian summer monsoon under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions in a global time-slice experiment

Abstract

In this study the possible change of the Indian summer monsoon associated with the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gases concentrations is investigated. This is done on the basis of a time-slice experiment performed with the ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (1970-1999) represents the present-day climate and the second one (2060-2089) the future climate. The time-slice experiment predicts an intensification of the rainfall in the Indian region during the monsoon season due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of the monsoon circulation. The increase of the regional rainfall is related to an intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region.