Estimating commuting modal split by using the Best-Worst Method

Abstract

Method: This paper endeavors to introduce a new approach to modal split estimation. In the frame of the research, a customized model of the recently created Best-Worst Method (BWM) is applied to evaluate mode choice alternatives by transport experts. The integrated BWM model is tested on a real-world case study in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, where a small number of selected experts estimate the modal split of three different groups clustered based on the distance of their commuting. Results: The results clearly demonstrate the popularity of public transport among all groups, while car is estimated to be used primarily by short- and mid-distance commuters. The coherence of the responses is tested along with sensitivity analysis and rank correlation comparison. Moreover, the final results are compared to the official modal split data of the city. Recommendations: Based on the findings, it can be concluded that the application of BWM results in competitive accuracy compared to the mainstream methodologies, moreover BWM needs significantly less cost and time effort during the survey procedure.