On the Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Ebola Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates

Abstract

We propose a new fractional-order model to investigate the transmission and spread of Ebola virus disease. The proposed model incorporates relevant biological factors that characterize Ebola transmission during an outbreak. In particular, we have assumed that susceptible individuals are capable of contracting the infection from a deceased Ebola patient due to traditional beliefs and customs practiced in many African countries where frequent outbreaks of the disease are recorded. We conducted both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. In addition, numerical simulation results are presented to demonstrate the analytical findings.