Risk spillovers among crude oil, gold, and China equity sub-sectors

Abstract

This study investigates the time-varying return spillovers among the gold and oil markets and the Chinese equity subsectors using a network system representation. The results of the statics analysis show that crude oil and the majority of equity sectors are the net transmitters of spillovers in the network, whereas gold is the net receiver of spillovers from the network system. Additionally, negative return spillovers are greater than positive return spillovers. The results of time-varying analysis based on the moving window technique show that the dynamic symmetric and asymmetric return propagation rise during several periods of financial difficulties, suggesting the existence of market contagion. This pattern of market spillover effects is particularly notable during the market stress period marked by the COVID-19 crisis. The analysis of dynamic network linkages uncovers the crude oil market and the banking sector as the biggest risk sources in the network system. Finally, we construct and compare the risk performance of portfolios under four different strategies, showing that gold is an effective hedging tool for risk in China’s stock market.