Assessment of weed establishment risk in a changing European climate

Abstract

We aimed at assessing establishment risk for 25 arable weed species in a changing European climate for the period 2051-2080. An increase (0.3-46.7%) in the range size was projected for the 14 species and a decrease (1.2-67.4%) for the 11 species in a future climate. The inclusion of the land use data increased the explanatory power of the models. The greatest increases in range sizes were projected for Amaranthus retroflexus, Papaver hybridum and Fumaria parviflora, and declines for Sinapis arvensis, Cerastium semidecandrum and Chenopodium rubrum. Ap-plication of a more severe climate scenario (HadCM3A2) affected decline (0.5-18.5%) for 12 species and increase (2.2-31.5%) for 13 species in the range size projections compared with the less severe (HadCM3B2) scenario. Both model scenarios projected high percentage species loss in Mediterranean and temperate Europe, but high species gain in the Alps, Carpathians and in boreal Europe. The results suggest that even under moderate climate scenarios drastic changes in the weed establishment risk can be expected to take place in Europe in future.