Where did it hit harder? Understanding the geography of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and European regions has been strikingly uneven. In 2020, excess mortality rates in the hardest-hit regions were, on average, 17 percentage points higher than those in the least affected regions of the same country. This paper shows that low health system capacity, followed by population density, air pollution, the share of elderly people, and low institutional quality were associated with higher excess mortality during the first year of the pandemic. Finally, reduced home-to-work mobility, following governments' COVID-19 responses, was associated with lower excess mortality 2 months after implementation of the measures.