Long Term Electric Load Forecasting for Bonny and Finima Towns using Linear Regression Method

Abstract

Electricity production and distribution is very important for developing countries especially Nigeria where power supply is epileptic. In Bonny kingdom, studies about electric energy consumption, distribution and planning is critical in order to manage the currently installed and limited power generating capacity of operating companies and to make important decisions regarding the power systems. This work, carried out long term forecasting of the two electricity suppliers in Bonny Island-Nigeria LNG Ltd (NLNG) and Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC). For this research work, recorded load data of last 34 months is collected and used to predict the load of both Finima and Bonny towns for next 10 years. For the load forecast, the linear regression methodology is used for the load growth prediction. This research work will enable the electricity supplier (NLNG, SPDC) and the operating company Bonny Utility Company (BUC) in Bonny Kingdom to plan for proper operation and control of present and future load demand of the power systems.