Simulation of Urban Growth’s Pressure on Urban Blue-Green Space Using the CORINE Database for Kocaeli, Türkiye

Abstract

Sustainability of resources and combating global climate change are on the agenda at the beginning of the most fundamental problems based on nature worldwide. Although they cover a small area of the world’s surface, urban growth and its accompanying effects are the main culprits of these problems. Against these problems, blue-green areas are accepted as a fundamental tool of sustainable urban development in the context of nature-based solutions. The research primarily used CORINE land data; classification was made under five primary headings: land cover, urban areas, industrial and commercial areas, forest areas, agricultural areas, and water surfaces. The 2030-year estimation of the fields was made using the cellular automata-Markov chain modeling method. As a result of the research, it has been determined that blue-green spaces are under severe construction pressure from 2006 to 2030. The suitability of the research model has been proven by the kappa-based method using kappa coefficients (Klocation: 0.9338).