Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into land use optimization: A case study in Huailai county, China

Abstract

Land use plays a crucial role in climate change adaptation and mitigation, as the reasonable design of land use distribution can positively impact these things. Therefore, research interest in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in land use and management has been growing. However, the adaptation and mitigation strategies have been handled separately at different dimensions and spatial levels. In this study, we presented a modeling framework for land use optimization that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation, developed the model, and then applied it to Huailai County, wherein environmental and socioeconomic conditions are sensitive to climate change. The regional land use optimization model was combined with a linear programming model and a modified cellular automata model. Subsequently, the climate change adaptation and mitigation constraints, including ecological water demand, spatial suitability, and carbon sequestration, were incorporated into the model. The results indicate that most regions in the study area could adapt to and mitigate climate change with a constant land use pattern, and the land use conversion region under different climate change scenarios was primarily located in the topography transition region. The optimization results also reveal trade-offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation that were manifested with an increase in carbon sequestration and ecological water demand accompanied by decreases in the net income of agricultural production. Thus, it is necessary to simultaneously incorporate climate change adaptation and mitigation into land use optimization and management, and the proposed model provides a feasible method to incorporate them and balance their trade-offs in land use pattern optimization at a regional scale.