Public policies and normative improvement technique: Statistical time series analysis of the fiscal incentive program "produzir" results in the state of goiás

Abstract

The Industrial Development Program of the State of Goiás (Produzir) is the current tax incentive program in the State of Goiás, in operation since 2000, and whose main objective is to contribute to the expansion of the industrial sector in Goiás, with an emphasis on generating employment and income and reducing social and regional inequalities. The objective of this work was to verify if the investments approved within Produzir resulted in positive and statistically significant changes in regional socioeconomic indicators associated with the teleological objectives of the Program. For this purpose, statistical tests were applied to verify possible structural changes in selected indicators time series: Total Number of Employees (RAIS); Annual Job Balance (CAGED); Municipal Revenue; Current Municipal Revenues; IDH-M; Gini index; and Average Municipal Income per Employee, all extracted from the Statistical Database (BDE), maintained by the Instituto Mauro Borges (IMB). An analysis was made of the teleological effectiveness of Produzir in its self-declared objectives in the period following the approval in the same Program of the inversion of incentives (ICMS tax waivers) in the 18 micro-regions of the State of Goiás (IBGE) in the period 2000-2017. The res'ults point to the ineffectiveness of Produzir as a public policy for job and income generation and social and regional inequalities, as there is evidence that almost R$ 210 billion (in current values) were spent by successive governments of the State of Goiás, in the period 2000-2017, with very few measurable results in favor of reaching the effective teleology proclaimed by the Program itself.