Erkrankungszahlen in der Pneumologie - Eine Projektion bis 2060

Abstract

Background: The demographic change leads to a change in the age-composition of the population. We have calculated a status quo projection of the absolute numbers for five diagnoses of the lung (COPD, CAP, lung cancer, bronchial asthma and tuberculosis) for Germany up to 2060. Material and Methods: Based on the 12th coordinated population prediction of the Federal Statistics Office, we transferred age-and sex-specific incidence and prevalence rates, respectively, to the expected population. All described developments are based solely on demographic changes. Results: The absolute numbers of bronchial asthma and tuberculosis will experience a minor decrease. We expect at first increasing and later decreasing case numbers for COPD and lung cancer. A major increase of the case numbers for CAP will be probable. By reason of a decreasing population, the rates (burden of disease for the population) will increase considerably. Discussion: The demographic change is mainly caused by increasing life expectancy, constantly low birth rates, and the entry of the baby-boom generation into the age of higher disease risks. A discussion about prioritisation of health care is needed because of the rising burdens for the health system, including diseases of the lung. © 2010 Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.